20 Walden Dr, Unit 20
20 Walden Dr, Unit 20, Natick, MA 01760·Condominium — Townhouse·Built 1983·936 sf
Cheapest listing in two MLSPIN alert digests and the closest to clearing a DSCR floor — still short.
Screening-level pass — closest of the batch, still short
Closest to clearing of anything in this alert batch, and still under a 1.00x lender DSCR even at a max-leverage program once the real $513/mo condo fee is priced in. Worth tracking if it sits or takes a price cut; not actionable at list on today’s estimate.
The numbers at a glance
Purchase price
$399,000
At list
Investors bring
$248,035
incl. $24,803 sponsor co-invest
Loan applied for
$182,597
46% LTV · 8% DSCR
Minimum investment
$50,000
5-year target hold
Stabilized NOI
$11,213
2.81% cap on price
Stabilized DSCR
0.70x
Lender requires 1.15x
Projected equity multiple
0.16x
over 5 years
Projected investor IRR
-30.6%
0.0% avg cash-on-cash
1% rule
0.69%monthly rent ÷ price
Investors typically want 1.00% or better. Gross rent multiple 12.0x.
Breakeven occupancy
110%
Above 100% — the property cannot cover expenses and debt even fully leased.
Reserve adequacy
Short
$12,000 budgeted against $23,911 of projected operating shortfall.
The thesis
Cheapest listing across two recent MLSPIN alert digests (20 properties, Aug 4–6 2026), and the only one in that batch whose gross yield — 8.3% on the town-average rent estimate — gets close to today’s DSCR floors. Built 1983, 2BR/2BA, freshly renovated per the listing, in the Deerfield Forest complex (pool, tennis, on-site laundry).
Still does not clear: at an estimated $2,765/mo it prices to a 0.92x lender DSCR against a 1.15x program (0.65x on the stricter investor test — rent net of vacancy, management and maintenance against principal and interest alone), and negative cash-on-cash at 25% down conventional. The real $513.43/mo condo fee — steep for the price point — is most of why this is worse than the alert-level estimate suggested.
The full underwriting
Sources & uses
Every dollar going in, and where it comes from. Investor equity is the balancing figure — it is what is left after the loan.
| Use of funds | Amount | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| Purchase price | $399,000 | — |
| Closing costs, title & transfer | $8,000 | ~2.0% of purchase price |
| Operating & capital reserve | $12,000 | ~6 months of debt service and operating shortfall |
| Loan origination | $3,652 | 2.0% of loan |
| Acquisition fee (sponsor) | $7,980 | 2.0% of purchase price |
| Total capitalization | $430,632 | |
| Source of funds | Amount | Share |
| Senior debtDSCR · 8% · 30-yr am | $182,597 | 45.8% LTV · 42.4% LTC |
| Investor (LP) equity | $223,231 | 51.8% of capitalization |
| Sponsor co-investmentskin in the game | $24,803 | 10% of equity |
| Total sources | $430,632 |
Investors bring $248,035 to the table — of which $24,803 is the sponsor's own money. Minimum investment is $50,000, so this raise is roughly 5 investors at the minimum.
Rent roll & rent estimate
In-place rent is what the tenants pay today. Market rent is our estimate once the unit is turned and repriced — the gap is the whole business plan.
| Unit | Beds / baths | In-place | Market est. | Lift | Lease |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Whole unit~936 sf | 2 bd / 2 ba | $0 | $2,765 | +$2,765 | Tenant at will |
| Total / month | $0 | $2,765 | +$2,765 | ||
| Total / year | $0 | $33,180 | +$33,180 |
Whole unit: Market rent is Natick’s Zillow ZORI typical rent (a town-wide average across all rental sizes), not a comp pulled for this 2-bed/936 sq ft unit. Treat as directional until real comps are pulled.
Stabilized operating statement
Year 2 — the first full year at market rents, in today's dollars. No rent growth is borrowed to make this year look better.
| Gross potential rent | $33,180 | All units at estimated market rent |
| Vacancy & credit loss | ($1,659) | 5% of GPR |
| Effective gross income | $31,521 | |
| Property taxes | ($4,757) | Actual FY2025 tax bill, MLS #73558431 (Assessed $386,100). |
| Insurance | ($2,055) | MA statewide-typical 0.5% of price. No landlord policy quote obtained. |
| Condo fee | ($6,346) | Actual: $513.43/mo, includes water, sewer, master insurance, pool, tennis, landscaping, snow removal and reserve funds. 334-unit complex (Deerfield Forest) — rental policy not confirmed; associations this size often cap the rental share. |
| Repairs & maintenance | ($2,654) | — |
| Capital reserve | ($1,659) | — |
| Property management | ($2,522) | 8.0% of EGI |
| Asset management fee (sponsor) | ($315) | 1.0% of EGI |
| Total operating expenses | ($20,308) | 64.4% of EGI |
| Net operating income | $11,213 | 2.81% cap on purchase price |
5-year cash flow projection
Rent grows 3% a year from year 3; expenses grow 3%. Negative cash flow means the deal is consuming reserves, not paying investors.
| Year | EGI | Op. expenses | NOI | Debt service | Cash flow | DSCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $28,894 | ($19,328) | $9,566 | ($16,078) | ($6,512) | 0.59x |
| Year 2 | $31,521 | ($20,308) | $11,213 | ($16,078) | ($4,864) | 0.70x |
| Year 3 | $32,467 | ($20,917) | $11,550 | ($16,078) | ($4,528) | 0.72x |
| Year 4 | $33,441 | ($21,544) | $11,896 | ($16,078) | ($4,182) | 0.74x |
| Year 5 | $34,444 | ($22,191) | $12,253 | ($16,078) | ($3,825) | 0.76x |
Exit assumptions — year 5
Sale priced by capitalizing year 6 NOI at a 5.5% cap rate.
| Forward NOI (year 6) | $12,621 |
| Gross sale priceat 5.5% exit cap | $229,471 |
| Cost of sale | ($13,768) |
| Disposition fee (sponsor) | ($2,295) |
| Loan payoff | ($173,595) |
| Net proceeds to partnership | $39,813 |
Distribution waterfall
8% preferred return to investors first (accrues if unpaid), then 70% / 30% investor / sponsor on everything above it.
| Year | Cash available | Pref due | Pref paid | Unpaid pref carried | To investors | To sponsor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $0 | $19,843 | $0 | $19,843 | $0 | $0 |
| Year 2 | $0 | $39,686 | $0 | $39,686 | $0 | $0 |
| Year 3 | $0 | $59,528 | $0 | $59,528 | $0 | $0 |
| Year 4 | $0 | $79,371 | $0 | $79,371 | $0 | $0 |
| Year 5 | $0 | $99,214 | $0 | $99,214 | $0 | $0 |
| Exit | $39,813 | $0 | $35,832 | $3,981 |
Investor capital in
$223,231
Total distributions
$35,832
Equity multiple / IRR
0.16x-30.6%
How fees are charged and distributed
Every form of sponsor compensation on this deal. If it is charged, it is on this table.
| Fee | Rate | On this deal | When | Paid out of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Acquisition fee | 2.0% of purchase price | $7,980 | Once, at closing | The equity raise — it is a line item in sources & uses above. |
| Asset management fee | 1.0% of effective gross income | $1,608 over the hold* | Annually, while we own it | Operating revenue, before cash flow reaches investors. It is inside NOI, not a separate charge. |
| Disposition fee | 1.0% of gross sale price | $2,295 | Once, at sale | Sale proceeds, before the loan is repaid and capital is returned. |
| Promote / carried interest | 30% of profits above the 8% preferred return | Nothing on this underwriting | Only after investors receive their pref | Profit only. If the deal never clears the preferred return, this pays nothing. |
| Property management | 8.0% of effective gross income | Third party | Monthly | Operating revenue. This goes to a third-party manager, not to the sponsor. |
Sponsor co-investment. We put $24,803 of our own capital in alongside you — 10% of the equity. Our co-invest sits in the same position as yours and earns the same preferred return; it is not a separate class.
Order of payment. Operating cash flow pays the 8% preferred return first. If there is not enough cash in a given year, the shortfall accrues and must be paid before the sponsor sees any profit split. At sale, proceeds repay capital, then accrued preferred return, then split 70% / 30%.
* Asset management total is the modelled figure across the 5-year hold and moves with actual revenue. Fee figures shown here are calculated from this deal's underwriting and are illustrative; the operating agreement and private placement memorandum govern in all cases.
What would have to change
The price this property actually supports
Max price at 1.15x DSCR
$241,983
$157,017 below the $399,000 we underwrote — a 39% reduction, holding leverage constant.
Max loan at this price
$110,740
Against the $182,597 contemplated. Financing the gap with equity pushes the raise to roughly $319,892 and kills the return.
Assessed value
$386,100
Town assessment for 2025. Not an appraisal, but a useful sanity check against the ask.
This is the number that turns a pro-forma into a bidding instruction. We would rather show you the price at which we would buy this building than dress up the price at which we would not.
Risks, and what we would do about them
Written before the deal is funded, not after something goes wrong.
Market rent is a town-wide average, not a comp for this unit
high severityZillow ZORI blends every rental size in Natick into one figure. Pull 3–5 comparable rented 2-bed condos before underwriting further — this number could move materially either direction.
Rental policy unconfirmed in a 334-unit complex
medium severityDeerfield Forest’s MLS sheet does not state a rental cap or owner-occupancy requirement, but associations this size often have one. Confirm with the management company before an offer — the Marlborough listing in this same batch turned out to be owner-occupant-only.
No pets allowed
low severityNarrows the tenant pool. Priced into the market-rent estimate only to the extent ZORI already reflects it.
Insurance is a statewide-typical estimate
medium severityPull a real landlord-policy quote; tax figure below is the actual FY2025 bill.
Sourced from a buyer-alert digest plus one MLS pull, not a showing
medium severityInterior condition confirmed from listing photos and remarks only. A showing comes before any offer.
Property detail
- Address
- 20 Walden Dr, Unit 20, Natick, MA 01760
- County
- Middlesex
- Type
- Condominium — Townhouse
- Units
- 1
- Year built
- 1983
- Living area
- 936 sf
- Lot
- —
- Parking
- —
- MLS #
- 73558431
- List price
- $399,000
- Assessed value
- $386,100
- Property tax (2025)
- $4,618
- Holding entity
- NB Walden Drive Partners LLC
- Underwritten
- 2026-08-06
MLSPIN buyer-alert digest, Aug 4 2026, plus a direct MLS pull — MLS #73558431. Property facts, tax and condo-fee data from the MLS sheet. Rent is Zillow ZORI typical rent for Natick as of 2026-06-30, not a comp for this unit. Insurance is a statewide-typical 0.5%-of-price estimate. Screened via Namaste’s DSCR tool (rental-deal-simulator repo, dscr.py) on 2026-08-06 at 25% down conventional and against the in-house 1.15x DSCR program tier.
Follow this deal
This one did not clear at list price. Tell us you are interested and we will bring you the next deal that does — with the same math, shown the same way.